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CNH Underperforms DXY Dip

CNH

USD/CNH couldn't get below 6.7500 overnight, despite USD weakness against the majors. USD/CNH continues to track well-worn ranges for now. We were last at 6.7540. CNH did give back recent gains against both JPY and EUR. CNH/JPY is back under 19.70, note the 100 day MA is at this level. EUR/CNH is back above 6.9200.

  • The overnight focus was on China's continued military exercises around Taiwan. Japan stated that a number of missiles landed in its exclusive economic zone. Missiles also reportedly flew over Taiwan, although the Taiwan Defence Ministry stated they didn't represent a threat.
  • Whilst the moves are seen as an escalation, broader market sentiment wasn't impacted greatly.
  • Elsewhere, China equities in the US, the Dragon Index, rose by +2.3% overnight. The third straight session of gains. Sentiment was buoyed by better than expected revenue reported by Alibaba.
  • Yesterday onshore equities rose, with the Shanghai composite index up 0.80%, so we will watch for further positive spill over today, although HSI Tech may see greater benefit (this index was up 3.3% yesterday).
  • The data calendar only has the Q2 BoP current account figures out today. July trade figures print on Sunday, while inflation figures are out next Wednesday. Premier Li Keqiang stated in a recent speech that China's inflation rate could reach 3.5% this year. Note the June YoY print was 2.5% (the market expects the July print to be at 2.9%).
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USD/CNH couldn't get below 6.7500 overnight, despite USD weakness against the majors. USD/CNH continues to track well-worn ranges for now. We were last at 6.7540. CNH did give back recent gains against both JPY and EUR. CNH/JPY is back under 19.70, note the 100 day MA is at this level. EUR/CNH is back above 6.9200.

  • The overnight focus was on China's continued military exercises around Taiwan. Japan stated that a number of missiles landed in its exclusive economic zone. Missiles also reportedly flew over Taiwan, although the Taiwan Defence Ministry stated they didn't represent a threat.
  • Whilst the moves are seen as an escalation, broader market sentiment wasn't impacted greatly.
  • Elsewhere, China equities in the US, the Dragon Index, rose by +2.3% overnight. The third straight session of gains. Sentiment was buoyed by better than expected revenue reported by Alibaba.
  • Yesterday onshore equities rose, with the Shanghai composite index up 0.80%, so we will watch for further positive spill over today, although HSI Tech may see greater benefit (this index was up 3.3% yesterday).
  • The data calendar only has the Q2 BoP current account figures out today. July trade figures print on Sunday, while inflation figures are out next Wednesday. Premier Li Keqiang stated in a recent speech that China's inflation rate could reach 3.5% this year. Note the June YoY print was 2.5% (the market expects the July print to be at 2.9%).