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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CNH
Just prior to the release of the official PMI prints, the USD/CNY fixing will print (9:15am local time, in around 30mins from now). This print is likely to remain a focus point for the market in the near term. Recall yesterday the fixing was much stronger than expected (-249pips in USD/CNY terms relative to expectations).
- Interestingly, Bloomberg reported that state banks were selling USD/CNY ahead of the 4:30pm onshore close yesterday (see this link for more details). The 4:30pm close is a key input into how banks submit their fixing estimates.
- The chart below plots USD/CNY intra-day performance over the past few days. Yesterday's 4:30pm close came in at 6.8980, versus Monday's close of 6.9210.
- This, all else equal, should bias bank estimates of the fixing lower compared to yesterday. Of course, the authorities may still bias the actual fix lower than consensus expectations as it attempts to temper depreciation pressures.
Fig 1: USD/CNY 4:30pm Close Was Under 6.9000 On Tuesday
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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