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CNY Fixing Again On the Strong Side

CNH

The USD/CNY fix printed at 6.8821, versus a market estimate of 6.8924 (BBG survey). Note the Reuters estimate wasn't too far away at 6.8910.

  • Today's fix continues the recent trend of stronger than expected fixings, albeit not as firm as recent sessions. In USD/CNY terms, the surprise today was -103pips (versus -177pips yesterday).
  • Interestingly, the rolling 5-day of the error term sits at -681pips today, versus -698pips yesterday, (as the -120pip surprise from last Thursday dropped out of this calculation).
  • Still, longer window metrics like the 10 or 20 day rolling sum of the error term continue to widen.
  • USD/CNH has stabilized somewhat. We are down slightly from session highs of 6.9175 (last at 6.9145/50), although this is likely more to do with broader USD momentum easing a touch rather than the fixing outcome.
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