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The early bias in USD/CNH has been higher. The pair is back to 6.9750, shy of overnight highs just above 6.9800. Still, with the proximity of 7.00 looming, options markets remain calm. The 1 month implied vol sits just above 6%, tracking recent ranges and well below earlier YTD highs of above 8%. Equally, the trend in the risk reversal has been down not up. This space is not suggesting run away depreciation if we see a move above 7.00. On tap today is August trade figures and FX reserves data.
- The trade figures are likely to maintain recent trends. The surplus is expected at $92.70bn, versus $101.26bn previously. Export growth is forecast to slow to 13.0% y/y from 18.0%, while import growth is estimated at 1.1% y/y (from 2.3%).
- The healthy trade surplus position is very much a symptom of weak domestic demand conditions.
- Also out today is FX reserves for August. The market expects a slip to $3065bn from $3104bn prior.
- The CNY fixing will be watched today. Recall yesterday the 5-day rolling sum of the error term edged up slightly (in USD/CNY terms). So, whilst the fixing bias remained firm, it may not have been strong enough to cap USD/CNH. The pair moved higher post the fixing.
- Domestic covid cases will be the other focus point. Note Beijing has reported 14 cases for yesterday.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.