USD Down Modestly, NZD Continues Outperformance

The dollar index sits lower, the BBDXY last near 1243.60, albeit up from earlier lows. Even with China markets returning today from the LNY break, it has been a relatively muted start to the week in terms of FX.

• With US markets closed later, there has been no cash Tsy trading today. Futures have been quiet, TYH largely unchanged versus end Friday levels in NY. US equity futures are positive, but away from best levels.
• NZD/USD has outperformed at the margins. The pair was last 0.6140, which is marginally above Friday highs and towards the top the monthly range. The 0.6150/55 level has been the barrier over the last month, a break above there could signal a test of the intraday highs from Jan 31 of 0.6174. While we trade above the 20 and 50-day EMAs of 0.6120/6135.
• Earlier local bank BNZ pushed back the timing of RBNZ cuts to November from August. The services PMI rebounded to 52.1 in Jan, from 48.8 prior.
• AUD/USD has lagged somewhat, albeit still marginally higher for the day. The pair was last 0.6540 , with weaker metal prices potentially weighing at the margin. SGX iron ore futures are off over 3%. Mixed anecdotes around China property sales through the LNY period may be a factor.
• For USD/JPY we have drifted lower, last near 150.00. We opened near 150.20. Speculation continues around the BoJ NIRP exit. The latest MNI policy insight is at this link, which looks at the chances of a shift at the March meeting.
• Looking ahead, US markets are closed later and there isn't much in the way of event risk elsewhere.