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USD Firmer, Weaker Equity Tone Helps, AUD Holding Losses Post CPI Miss

FOREX

The USD has mostly traded on a positive footing as the FOMC comes into view. The BBDXY was last near 1237.35, slightly off session highs (1237.74). A weaker tone to US equity futures (Nasdaq off more than 0.8%), has aided the USD at the margins, as earnings disappointment from tech bellwethers weighed on sentiment. US yields sit down around 1-2bps across the benchmarks.

  • AUD has been the weakest performer, off 0.45% in recent dealings near the 0.6570 level (lows were at 0.6559). We had a weaker than expected Q4 CPI print, which has weighed on local yields and market pricing for the RBA outlook.
  • The slight downside miss on the China manufacturing PMI also hasn't helped the A$. Metal commodities are down for copper and iron ore.
  • NZD/USD has been dragged down by AUD weakness, and broader risk off trends. The pair last new 0.6115 around 0.35% weaker versus end NY levels from Tuesday.
  • USD/JPY sunk in early trade, dipping under 147.20, as the BoJ Summary Of Opinions from the Jan policy meeting struck a hawkish tone around exiting negative rates. Our Japan policy team provided its latest insight, "While the April 25-26 meeting remains the most likely timing for policy adjustment, there is still an outside chance the Bank of Japan could look to end its negative rates policy in March 18-19 due to strong wage and prices data, MNI understands (see this link)."
  • The pair has recovered though to be back at 147.65, little changed for the session, albeit outperforming the other majors.
  • EUR/USD sits near 1.0825, off around 0.25% for the session so far.
  • The focus of today will be the Fed decision out later; no change in rates is expected (see MNI Fed Preview here). There are also January US ADP employment & MNI Chicago PMI, and Q4 employment cost index. German & French preliminary CPIs also print.

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