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USD Firms on Waller, Golden Cross Provides Background Support

FOREX
  • EUR/USD trades at daily lows just ahead of the NY crossover, extending the USD's gains posted following the formation of a golden cross technical pattern in the USD Index (50-dma > 200-dma). Hawkish comments from Fed's Waller proved key, who spoke after the Wednesday US close to argue that the Fed should delay, or reduce altogether, an easing cycle in light of recent inflation data.
  • The weight in EUR/USD has been pushed through on generally firm volumes - with notable uptick in activity on the break of the overnight lows, potentially signalling the break of stops to accelerate the move. Price action so far today confirms the bearish theme is still dominant and further USD strength should result in a test of 1.0695, the bear trigger. Weakness to this mark is unlikely today, but next week's CPI Exp survey and the March inflation read could prove instrumental (Our preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/60535/Mar202...)
  • This keeps the USD the firmest in G10, with JPY also similarly strong. Antipodean currencies are the poorest performers, with AUD and NZD trading soft, while SEK is weaker again after the Riksbank rate decision this week pointed to a potential rate cut at either the May or June meetings.
  • Focus ahead turns to tertiary US GDP data, the Canadian growth release for January, weekly US jobless claims data and the final print for UMich sentiment. MNI Chicago PMI is also set for release, with markets expecting the gauge to rise to 46.0 from 44.0. The central bank speaker slate is quiet, with just ECB's Villeroy scheduled after the European close.
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