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USD Hits Fresh Lows On Dovish Fed, NZD Outperforms Post Hawkish RBNZ Hold

FOREX

The BBDXY got to fresh lows of 1228.7 in early dealings before stabilizing, the index last near 1230.25, still off around 0.15-0.20%. Dovish Fed rhetoric weighed in early Asia Pac trade, sending US Tsy futures to session highs, before gains were pared. This has helped USD sentiment stabilize somewhat, the 10yr yield was last 4.29% (earlier lows were just under 4.28%.

  • Weighing on the USD was demand for yen into the Tokyo fix. USD/JPY hit of low of 146.67, not too far from trendline support - 146.48, drawn from the Mar 24 low. However, we now sit back at 147.10, close to Nov 21 lows.
  • NZD/USD is the clear outperformer, following the hawkish RBNZ hold. The pair is back near 0.6200 (+1%), just off session highs. The RBNZ revised higher the OCR track, and warned policy may need to be tightened further.
  • AUD/NZD is down sharply, last near 1.0725/30. bears will eye a break back sub 1.0700. AUD has underperformed after the Oct CPI miss, although there are caveats on this data. AUD/USD was last near 0.6650 little changed versus NY closing levels on Tuesday.
  • Looking ahead, the November euro area EC economic sentiment survey is out. The Fed publishes its Beige Book and Mester speaks. In terms of data, there are US October trade numbers, inventories and updated Q3 GDP.
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