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USD Holds Losses Post-Fed, USD/JPY Nears Key Support

FOREX
  • Following the Fed's 75bps rate rise on Wednesday, the USD Index has broken lower, touching the lowest levels since early July to drop around 1.25% from yesterday's pre-Fed levels.
  • The JPY is the firmest currency so far Thursday, putting USD/JPY at the lowest levels since early July to narrow the gap with the 50-dma. This level marks a key support going forward and hasn't been tested in any material way since March. The support crosses at 134.18.
  • The weakest currency in G10 is the SEK, falling alongside the single currency, which is generally shrugging off the uptick in inflationary pressures evident across German regions.
  • The risk backdrop is generally positive, with the e-mini S&P holding above the 4,000 level following the Fed, with the index eyeing yesterday's highs of 4,042.75 - the best level since mid-June.
  • The national read for German CPI is next up, with regional figures so far suggesting an uptick in inflationary pressures. EU-harmonized figures will be confirmed at 1300BST/0800ET.
  • Focus will then turn to the Q2 advance GDP reading from the US which, if it comes in negative, would confirm two quarters of negative growth to confirm what some would define as a recession. Nonetheless, median looks for a +0.5% read today.
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