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USD/IDR Attempting To Move Above Key MA Levels

IDR
USD/IDR is trying to move above the 100-day EMA (15268), with spot last at 15272, around +0.25% above yesterday's closing level. We are also moving above the simple 50-day MA (15258.5). The local data calendar remains quiet until next week.
  • Bi Governor Warjiyo was once again on the wires stating that current policy levels will be enough to bring Indonesia inflation back to target. He also added the Fed could stay hiking interest rates until mid year, which would pressure other currencies (including IDR) against the USD.
  • Still, BI stands ready to intervene to support the local currency. BI will also offer the following rates for export FX deposits (5.2% for 6 months, 4.92% for 3 and 4.64% for 1 month).
  • On the flow front, we ended Feb with just under $500mn in outflows from local bonds (with 98.3mn coming on the final day of trading). Equity flows have been firmer though, just up over $200mn for the week so far.
  • The equity flow trend likely needs to continue to curb upside USD/IDR pressure amid a higher core yield backdrop and firming technical picture, as outlined above.
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