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USD/IDR Back Above 14800, April Trade Figures On Tap Today

IDR

USD/IDR has pressed higher at the open, but this is line with the USD gains post the onshore close from Friday. We were last at 14805/10, around +0.40% above Friday closing levels (highs for the session today were at 14813). The 1 month NDF is slightly lower versus NY closing levels though, last 14825/30. We are at fresh highs for the month though in terms of USD/IDR spot. Late April highs in the pair came in around 14930/35.

  • Still elevated US real yields and weaker commodity prices continue to weigh on IDR. Palm oil prices are only a touch above recent lows.
  • Onshore equities are higher today, but only a touch above the 6700 level, which marks recent lows. Offshore investors sold a further -$64.7mn of local shares on Friday, while bond flows from Thursday were -$134.2mn.
  • CDS levels have ticked away from recent highs, so this may helping cap upside in USD/IDR to some degree.
  • A little later on we get Apr trade figures, the market expects a $3332mn surplus (+$2828mn prior), while exports are forecast at -19.31% y/y (prior -11.33%), imports at -5.98% (-6.26% prior).
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