USD/IDR Back Sub 15000, But Has Lagged Broader USD Sell-Off In July

USD/IDR has drifted back sub 15000 on the back of broader USD weakness. Still, this is lagging broader Asia FX trends and higher beta FX, which have seen stronger gains against the USD. IDR has lagged the generally softer USD trend over the past month. Along with TWD, they are the only Asia FX currencies not to have risen against the USD (although INR gains are only very modest).

• Current USD/IDR levels leaves us within recent ranges. EMA levels are clustered nearby. On the topside is the 200-day at 15040, on the downside is the 50-day at 14985. A weak US yield backdrop should aid the rupiah all else equal and enable some catch up with softer USD trends.
• Portfolio inflows have been positive in July to date, albeit with aggregate inflows not large in USD terms. Foreign ownership of local bonds is back to April 2022 highs though. Local equities remain in an uptrend, although the JCI is down a touch today.
• The data calendar is quiet until next Tuesday when the PMI and July CPI prints.
• President Jokowi is also in China today where he will meet with President Xi. Jokowi will be seeking investment flows, particularly as Indonesia seeks to move up the manufacturing value chain.