USD/IDR Back To Mid Jan Levels, Wednesday Election Day In Focus

USD/IDR is a little lower versus end Wednesday levels from last week, as markets return from the Thur/Fri break. The pair was last near 15610 after closing last Wednesday at 15635. The 1 month NDF is also down modestly, last near 15620. We are now back to mid Jan levels for the pair.

• Current spot levels are sub the 20 and 50 day EMAs but we remain above thee 100 day (near 15550) and the 200 day, near 15425.
• The clear focus this week will be on Indonesia's election, with a clear victory for current favorite Prabowo likely to be the most market outcome, in terms reducing uncertainty that might come with an election run off.
• Portfolio flows have been positive in Feb so far for the equity backdrop, +$258mn, but are flat in the bond space, with uncertainty surrounding the Fed easing cycle a likely constraint.
• The positive global equity market backdrop has aided IDR sentiment, while locally 5yr CDS has ticked down modestly but remains above mid Dec 2023 lows sub +70bps.