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USD/IDR Breaches 15000, Hitting Fresh Highs Back To Early January 2023

IDR

The path of least resistance for USD/IDR still appears skewed higher. The pair is making fresh highs above 15500 in the first part of trading today (last at 15525), off 0.25% in IDR terms. Early January highs at the beginning of this year came in close to 15640. On the downside the 20-day EMA sits back near 15365.

  • The combination of weaker global equity market sentiment, higher US real yields and broader USD gains all appear to be weighing on the rupiah.
  • Locally, the 5yr CDS is at 93bps, highs back to late May of this year. The JCI equity index is off recent highs, unable to hold gains above the 7000 level. Palm oil prices are also generally lower, bucking firmer trends elsewhere in the commodity complex.
  • Portfolio flows remain a headwind for the FX as well. This week has seen -$119.3mn withdrawn from local stocks, -$178.5mn from local bonds.
  • Reuters headlines crossed yesterday from the BI that it would ensure supply and demand balance in the FX space. This seems to be the main risk for USD/IDR bulls in the near term.
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