USD/IDR Close To 15600, Back To Flat YTD

USD/IDR has opened with a firmer bias in the first part of trade, gaping higher towards the 15600 level. This is +0.40% above yesterday's closing level. The pair last tracked at 15595. Intra-day highs from early January this year came near 15640. Beyond that lies late December 2022 highs around 15765. Like elsewhere in the region, the 20-day EMA is trending higher, last near 15408.

• The market will remain on guard for renewed BI intervention efforts, but so far, the central bank appears to be managing the pace of the USD/IDR rise, rather than defining a firm line in the sand for the pair.
• The continued rise in US real yields (10yr to fresh cyclical highs of 2.34%) remains a headwind for IDR. The associated negative spill over to global equity sentiment is another negative for risk appetite.
• Indonesia's 5yr CDS continues to drift higher, last near 95bps. Crude palm oil has largely track sideways in recent weeks. Local equities remain around mid-range for the range of the past month, last sitting near 6960.
• The local data calendar is relatively quiet this week, with just September FX reserves on tap (out this Friday).