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USD/IDR Close To Test Of Simple 200-day MA

IDR

USD/IDR is tracking higher in the first part of Monday trade, the pair last above the 15200 level. This is fresh highs back to late March of this year. The 1 month NDF is also climbing, last around the 15255 level, slightly down from session highs (15275). Both pairs are comfortably above all key EMAs. Note for spot USD/IDR, the simple 200-day MA comes in around 15222.

  • On the data front we had June consumer confidence edged down to 127.1 from 128.3 prior. This is not typically a market mover though.
  • The 1 month USD/IDR didn't see much downside post the US payrolls print on Friday, although liquidity will have been lighter post the onshore spot close. So, today's IDR underperformance is in some respects a continuation of that trend.
  • Cross asset headwinds are present in terms of still elevated US real yields, coupled with Indonesia CDS ticking higher. Outflows from local bonds by offshore investors has also been present this month (-$236mn). Local equities are higher today though, +0.50%.
  • The local data calendar is quiet for much of this week, with June trade data due out next Monday.
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