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USD/IDR Continues To Recover

IDR

USD/IDR has continued to climb today. The pair is up a further 0.50% in spot terms to 14841, while the 50-day MA comes in at 14878. Risk aversion creeping back into regional equities is not helping, even if Indonesian stocks are flat on the day.

  • Indonesia 5yr CDS has also nudged up, back to 109, +6bps for the session. The continued drift higher in US real yields, now back to +43bps will be weighing on Indonesian sentiment at the margin.
  • The BI Governor also came across the wires with dovish comments, stating the central bank is no rush to raise rates, and that rates don't need to be raised with the removal of energy subsidies. Note the next decision from the BI is on Tuesday the 23rd of August.
  • Palm oil prices are also drifting lower, down a further 2% today.
  • These moves are unwinding some of the positive sentiment in terms of offshore investors returning to the local bond. This investor base participated strongly in the Tuesday bond auction.

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