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USD/IDR Edges Off Recent Highs, Portfolio Flows Still A Headwind

IDR

USD/IDR has tracked lower in recent dealings, last near 15730, around 0.25% stronger in IDR terms for the session. Recent highs from yesterday came in close to 15780. The 1 month NDF is also slightly lower versus end NY closing levels from Tuesday, near 15750.

  • For spot we are still some distance above the 20-day EMA, near 15680, which is showing a modest uptrend. A better regional equity tone, led a HK rebound, has aided broader risk appetite in the FX space.
  • This, coupled with higher palm oil prices is aiding IDR gains at this stage.
  • Still other signals are less supportive, 5yr CDS has ticked higher today and while local equities are higher, we are only a touch above March lows.
  • Also, portfolio flows remain a net negative for the FX. We saw nearly $50mn in equity outflows at the start of the week, while bond outflows on Monday were -$118mn.
  • Tomorrow on the data front we get Feb FX reserves, then next week we have consumer confidence and trade figures for Feb.
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