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USD/IDR Holds Above 15600, BI Tomorrow

IDR
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USD/IDR is little changed for today's session. As has been the case this week, the pair has been unable to sustain early downside, and we are back above 15600 currently. We sit close to the 20-day EMA (15611), while the 50-day comes in at 45537. Tomorrow delivers the big event risk for the week with the BI decision.

  • Our expectation is for a 25bps hike, see the preview here, but risks are somewhat skewed to the upside (i.e. a 50bps move). A more hawkish surprise may be needed to shake out IDR's underperforming trend.
  • We have also had decent headline flow today. The budget deficit is on the improve with President Jokowi stating it is seen at -2.49% of GDP for this year (-4.6% last year). The consensus also expects further improvement next year.
  • It has also been just announced the country will ban bauxite ore exports from June next year. Indonesia is attempting to move up the value chain and not simple export raw materials. The move was touted earlier in the month by Jokowi. The country has the world's 5th largest reserves of bauxite and is the third largest supplier to China behind Guinea and Australia per Bloomberg reports. Bans to other raw material exports could also transpire.
  • Still, the country is aiming for a healthy $38.5bn trade surplus next year (the past 12 months cumulative sum trade surplus has been just over $50bn).
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USD/IDR is little changed for today's session. As has been the case this week, the pair has been unable to sustain early downside, and we are back above 15600 currently. We sit close to the 20-day EMA (15611), while the 50-day comes in at 45537. Tomorrow delivers the big event risk for the week with the BI decision.

  • Our expectation is for a 25bps hike, see the preview here, but risks are somewhat skewed to the upside (i.e. a 50bps move). A more hawkish surprise may be needed to shake out IDR's underperforming trend.
  • We have also had decent headline flow today. The budget deficit is on the improve with President Jokowi stating it is seen at -2.49% of GDP for this year (-4.6% last year). The consensus also expects further improvement next year.
  • It has also been just announced the country will ban bauxite ore exports from June next year. Indonesia is attempting to move up the value chain and not simple export raw materials. The move was touted earlier in the month by Jokowi. The country has the world's 5th largest reserves of bauxite and is the third largest supplier to China behind Guinea and Australia per Bloomberg reports. Bans to other raw material exports could also transpire.
  • Still, the country is aiming for a healthy $38.5bn trade surplus next year (the past 12 months cumulative sum trade surplus has been just over $50bn).