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USD/IDR Recovers From Earlier Lows, BI Sees USD/IDR 2024 Average Sub 15000


USD/IDR gapped lower at the open, hitting 15217, but sits slightly higher now, last near 15235, still ~0.15% firmer in IDR terms versus yesterday's close. The 1 month NDF has seen modest upside today versus NY closing levels on Tuesday, last at 15241.

  • For spot USD/IDR we are right on the 20-day EMA, but haven't tested the simple 200-day MA yet, which comes in at 15204. Earlier highs from the week came in around ~15300.
  • IDR has benefited from the pull back in US real yields following US data misses, the 10yr back to +183bps, versus recent cyclical highs of +200bps. Global equities are also giving a risk on impulse, which may help stabilize Indonesian portfolio flows. Yesterday saw -$106.9mn in fresh equity outflows, while bond outflows last week were at -$446.3mn
  • BI Governor Wariyo stated late yesterday that 68 exporters had placed export proceeds into special accounts onshore, up from 34 previously. The Governor stated this could bring in $8-9bn in extra FX reserves by December. The central bank sees USD/IDR averaging 14850 next year versus 15000 for 2023. Note the YTD 2023 average is 15080.
  • The local data calendar remains quiet Friday when August CPI prints, along with the manufacturing PMI.

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