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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
IDR
USD/IDR spot is down around 0.30% in the first part of dealing on Friday, last at 15605. This is just up from session lows near 15590. IDRs pot gains largely reflect IDR NDF gains through US trade on Thursday. The 1 month USD/IDR NDF is only slightly stronger in rupiah terms, last near 15620.
- Broadly, IDR gains in recent sessions appears to reflect some catch up with a softer US yield backdrop. The chart below plots the 1 month NDF against the US 10yr yield. The rea yield peaked back in late Feb, but month end USD demand may have delayed IDR reaction.
- Still, portfolio flows in the debt space from offshore investors have remained negative in recent sessions. Equity outflows have stabilized somewhat but are yet to turn positive for March.
- For USD/IDR spot we aren't too far away from the 100-day EMA, near 15582. We haven't been below this support level since Jan of this year. One sell-side analyst (Standard Chartered, via BBG) noted the BI may use the USD/IDR dip to replenish FX reserves. Feb FX reserves dip dip by $1bn, but sit only marginally below recent highs ($144bn).
Fig 1: USD/IDR 1 Month Versus US 10yr Real Yield
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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