USD/IDR Threatens To Return Above 50-DMA, Eyes Imminent BI Decision

Spot USD/IDR has added 43 pips and last deals at IDR14,743, although its 100-DMA crossed below the 200-DMA, as the aforementioned STAT article triggered broader risk-off flows. Bulls look for a clean break above the 50-DMA at IDR14,746, which would turn focus to Sep 29/25 highs of IDR14,918/14,919, followed by channel top at IDR15,030. On the flip side, a slide through channel bottom/Oct 6 low at IDR14,618/14,605 would call the current uptrend into question, drawing attention to Aug 31 low of IDR14,505.

• Bank Indonesia is about to deliver its monetary policy decision later today. All but two analysts surveyed by BBG expect BI to leave its policy rate unchanged today. IDR remains the worst performer in Asia this year, which limits Bank Indonesia's optionality in terms of further policy easing, even as the currency ticked higher last week after Indonesia adopted its omnibus labour law bill.
• Looking further afield, Indonesia's trade figures are due Thursday.