USD/IDR To Fresh Highs Since April 2020

USD/IDR has broken higher, the pair last close to 15760, which is fresh highs back to early 2020. We are through previous resistance at 15650, although the authorities may guard against further weakness in thinner liquidity markets ahead of year end. Early April 2020 highs came in around the 15820 level and beyond that is the 16000 region.

• On the downside, the 20-day EMA sits back at 15635, while the 50-day day is at 15563. A sustained break below the 50-day is likely needed to turn sentiment around from a technical standpoint for the rupiah. The early December move down through this support level proved to be a false break.
• Cross asset headwinds persist for IDR. The continued trend move higher in US real yields (10yr at 1.60%) is weighing at the margins, while palm oil prices continue to track sideways (although down today). The Citi IDR ToT proxy has stabilized somewhat over the past week, while CDS levels are also well behaved.
• Modest equity outflows are evident, nudging December to date net outflows to near -$1.2bn. The JCI is off a further 0.55% today.