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USD/IDR Tracks Higher, 16000 Within Sight

IDR

USD/IDR continues to track higher. The pair is now above 15900, spot last near 15950. We closed last Friday at 15875, with last Thursday's surprise 25bps rate hike providing only fleeting support to the local FX. This is fresh highs in the pair back to the first part of 2020, with 16000 the likely next upside target level. Note highs from 2020 came in just above 16600.

  • The 1 month NDF last tracked at 15970, also fresh highs back to the first part of 2020. The currency is the weakest performer in EM Asia FX so far today.
  • The firmer nominal US Tsy yield backdrop is likely weighing today. Whilst other cross asset signals are also negative. 5yr CDS is ticking higher last at 103bps.
  • Onshore equites are down sharply, the JCI off 1.6%so far today. This puts the index back to early July levels. Outbound equity flows were -$208.3mn last week. Net inflows into local bond were modestly positive.
  • The local data calendar is empty this week.
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