February 04, 2025 17:50 GMT
FOREX: USD Index Edges Further South, Now Lower on Week
FOREX
- Currency market volatility was relatively subdued on Tuesday, in contrast with the sharp swings seen throughout Monday’s session. However, the USD index spent the majority of the session on the backfoot, consistently edging lower and extending session declines from the overnight highs to around 1%.
- Despite the significant greenback surge to start the week, the DXY is now lower on the week with multiple factors weighing throughout the session. Primarily, broader optimism surrounding trade/tariff negotiations has boosted equities, supporting risk sensitive currencies in tandem. Secondly, Trump's hardline approach on Iran has assisted the push lower in the front-end of the US yield curve and, in turn, has pressured the greenback.
- Aside from Scandies which lead G10 FX gains, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss Franc also moderately outperform. Broad dollar weakness however keeps the likes of EUR, AUD and CNH all on the front foot, registering gains of around 0.3% on the session.
- For now, EURUSD gains are considered corrective, however the powerful recovery from yesterday’s cycle lows has seen the pair breach initial resistance at 1.0350, the Jan 31 low and Monday’s high. A stronger recovery would place the focus on 1.0446, the 50-day EMA and then 1.0533, the Jan 27 high and a key resistance.
- There was also a notable turnaround for USDJPY, which after printing a 155.52 high, traded as low as 154.26, keeping a developing bear threat for the pair in play and focus on a cluster of daily lows just below the 154.00 handle.
- New Zealand unemployment headlines the APAC docket on Wednesday, before the focus turns to US ADP employment and ISM Services PMI.
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