March 19, 2025 04:49 GMT
FOREX: USD Index Edges Up, Yen Steady Post BOJ, FOMC Later
FOREX
The USD BBDXY index sits slightly higher in the first part of Wednesday dealings, last near 1263.1. We are still close to recent multi-month lows at 1261.15. Today's gain is around 0.10% at this stage.
- Today's main focus has been the BOJ decision, but as widely expected, the central bank left rates on hold at 0.50%. The statement appeared balanced, in that the door was left firmly ajar for further hikes (virtuous wage and price cycle was described as intensifying), but significant uncertainty around the economic outlook was also highlighted (particularly from a trade standpoint). We have Ueda's press conference in just under 2 hours.
- USD/JPY was last near 149.55, slightly up on end Tuesday levels, with ranges of 149.20/64 so far. We had earlier data on trade and machine orders. The trade position moved back into surplus, while machine orders were weaker than forecast. Sentiment in the FX space didn't shift though. broadly USD/JPY is wedged between key support and resistance levels.
- NZD/USD has ticked down, back to 0.5810, off close to 0.20%. Q1 Westpac consumer confidence fell to 89.2 from 97.5, the weakest since Q2 2024 which is before the RBNZ began easing. The Q4 current account deficit was slightly wider than expected at $7.037bn but significantly narrower than Q3’s $10.84bn. Note tomorrow we get Q4 GDP. Upside focus for the currency is at 0.5860, the 200-day EMA. The 100-day at 0.5765 may act as downside support.
- AUD/USD has also edged down a touch, last near 0.6355/60. The currency remains sub key resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high and bull trigger.
- In the cross asset space, US equity futures are slightly higher, but away from best levels. US Tsy yields have ticked up, the 10yr back to 4.295%, up a little over 1bps.
- Later the Fed’s decision is announced and includes updated projections and Chair Powell’s press conference. No change in rates is widely expected. The ECB’s de Guindos and Elderson speak later and February euro area CPI data print.
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