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USD Index Firms, Underpinned by Solid Jobs Report

FOREX
  • The USD index has rallied the best part of half a percent on Friday, underpinned by both a recovery/stabilisation for USDJPY and a firm US jobs report that saw a higher-than-expected change in nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate edge down to 3.7%.
  • The daily changes do not do justice to the aggressive intra-day price action across the G10 FX space. In particular USDJPY traded in a very volatile manner once more, although the 271-pip range fortunately stayed well within Thursday’s extremes. Over the data, the higher jobs figure and average hourly earning prompted USDJPY to trade as highs as 145.21, although the pair swiftly reversed course as the finer details of the rounded earnings data was not as hawkish as on first glance. With thoughts of yesterday’s collapse fresh on the mind, USDJPY sold off down to 143.76 in short order before stabilising.
  • UMich data saw sentiment rise and inflation expectations fall which offered a further reprieve for the greenback and has translated into the 0.5% advance for the index. Overall, this equals the rally on the week as the dollar extends its recovery from the late-November lows.
  • Underperfoming on the session was NZD (-0.71%), whereas the Canadian dollar showed relative resilience, rising 0.1% against the USD. The recent break of trendline support for USDCAD, drawn from the Jul 14 low, strengthens the current downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term.
  • A busy macro calendar next week with three major central bank decisions (Fed, ECB & BOE) alongside US CPI, US Nov retail sales, Euro area & US December Flash PMI's.
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