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USD Index Oscillating Either Side of 50-dma

FOREX
  • The greenback is modestly softer, but well within recent ranges, ahead of the Wednesday Fed decision, with markets looking beyond a likely 75bps rate hike today for any guidance on whether a pivot for policy could come as soon as December. Markets are partially pricing such an eventuality, with a roughly 50/50 split in pricing for a 50bps vs. 75bps hike at the final meeting of the year. The USD Index continues to oscillate on either side of the 50-dma at 111.0479, a key support Wednesday.
  • At the top of the G10 table, JPY is outperforming all others, with USD/JPY testing the Tuesday low of 146.99 ahead of the Fed rate decision later today. The move lower for the pair during Asia-Pac hours is notable ahead of the market holiday for Japan on Thursday, with traders possibly positioning for the risk of a hawkish Fed prompting another wave of direct intervention from the Japanese authorities a strong background possibility.
  • The EUR is middle-of-the-pack, with PMI data out across the morning confirming a marked slowdown in manufacturing across the Eurozone in October. The EZ release slowed to 46.4 for the final reading, just below expectations of 46.6. EURUSD trend conditions remain bullish and the recent pullback is still considered corrective. Last week's key technical development was the break of the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high and highlights a stronger bull reversal. The focus is on 1.0198 next, the Sep 12 high.
  • Ahead of the much-watched Fed decision, markets will also digest ADP employment change for October ahead of this Friday's NFP release. A number of ECB speakers are due, with Makhlouf, Villeroy and Nagel on the docket.
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