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Free AccessUSD/INR 1-Month NDF Test Yesterday's Low After Release Of Indian Data
USD/INR 1-month NDF have eased off in response to the latest round of Indian macroeconomic data, with CPI inflation unexpectedly slowing in December and industrial output rising considerably more than forecast in November.
- India's consumer prices rose 5.72% Y/Y last month, missing the +5.90% estimate, after a +5.88% gain in the previous month. The latest outturn is within the RBI's target range of +2-6% Y/Y. Meanwhile, industrial production grew 7.1% Y/Y in November, smashing the +2.8% consensus forecast and returning to levels last seen in June.
- The data came ahead of the Feb 1 federal budget and Feb 8 monetary policy review. Consensus has been leaning towards another 25bp rate hike this cycle, albeit a new food distribution scheme announced by the gov't may help contain inflation this year.
- USD/INR 1-month NDF last seen -0.12 at INR81.62, testing one-month lows printed yesterday. A break here would prompt bears to take aim at Dec 1 low of INR81.15, followed by key support from Nov 11 low of INR80.56.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.