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USD/INR Rises to Fresh Record High, Equities Extend Dip Amid Sustained Dollar Strength

INDIA
  • USD/INR printed a fresh record high of 83.5550, extending the bounce off last week’s low to around 0.5%. Last week’s US CPI data and subsequent hawkish Fed repricing provided fresh USD demand with greenback strength persistent this week, while elevated geopolitical angst surrounding the Middle East will also be factoring into rupee weakness.
  • USD/INR price action shows that the RBI are seemingly content with intervening in the FX market at higher levels as they build up reserves of foreign currency. Indeed, MUFG noted recently that they believe the central bank will continue to build up more reserves whenever they have the chance to, which should limit the extent of INR strength moving forward.
  • Meanwhile, Indian bonds have fallen to multi-month lows across the curve (10y trading at YTD low), tracking the sell-off in US Treasuries owing to fading expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut.
  • The Nifty and Sensex indices both closed around 0.6% lower on Tuesday, as strong dollar demand and elevated geopolitical tensions weigh on both global, and in particular, emerging market stocks.
  • There are no local data releases on the docket for the remainder of the week.
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