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USD/JPY Dips Sub 135.00 Still Supported

JPY

JPY was the best performing G10 currency against the USD last week. We dipped sub 135.00 post the Asia close on Friday, but these dips were supported, and we pushed back above the figure level. We track at 135.25 currently, slightly above NY closing levels.

  • USD/JPY levels still look too high relative to recent retracements in US yields. Recession concerns remained elevated late last week, following the weaker than expected US ISM print, which contained soft details. The Atlanta Fed Nowcaster for GDP also now sits at -2.078%.
  • Still, US yields recovered some momentum into the close late last week (2yr to 2.83% from 2.73% lows), which likely helped USD/JPY recover.
  • The other factor is lower VIX levels likely helped yen cross demand at the margin, as US equities rose. Pairs like AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY have seen a further modest push higher in early trade today.
  • The Japan data calendar has just monetary base data for June on tap today.
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