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USD/JPY Back Threatening Fresh Highs, Feb National CPI Out Later

JPY

USD/JPY spent most of the Thursday post Asia close on the front foot, although stopped short of posting fresh highs. The pair topped out at 151.75, and we track near 151.60 in early Friday dealings. This was a yen loss of around 0.25% for yesterday's session, which was an outperformance against the rest of the majors.

  • The USD rebound was aided by dovish SNB (-25bps cut) and BOE signals yesterday, with CHF and GBP the weakest performers in the G10 space. Better US data aided the move and help push front end rates higher. Equity sentiment was better in EU and US markets as well.
  • Focus in USD/JPY is likely to be nearby resistance levels, which may acted as a headwind to further gains in Thursday's session.
  • The cluster of significant resistance starts at Wednesday's highs of 151.82, which precedes the multi-decade highs at 151.91/95. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the long-term USDJPY uptrend, with a break opening 152.66, a Fibonacci projection. Yesterday's early session lows were just under 150.30.
  • On the data front today we have Feb national CPI on tap. The headline y/y rate is expected to rebound (+2.9% forecast versus +2.2% prior). Offshore weekly investment flows are also out.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda stated in parliament yesterday that this week's hike was designed to prevent sharper moves in rates later (see this link).
  • Note the following option expires for NY cut later: Y150.00($1.1bln), Y150.95-00($1.3bln), Y151.75($647mln).

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