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USD/JPY Creeps Higher, 1 Week Risk Reversal Comfortably Above Pre BoJ 2023 Lows

JPY

USD/JPY has crept higher in recent dealings. The pair last around session highs at 148.30/35. Earlier dips sub 148.00 (session lows at 147.94), were supported. Upside focus will rest on Jan 17 highs at 148.52.

  • Fresh yen weakness has been aided by US yield gains, although the 10yr UST sits off session highs, last near 4.16%, close to +2bps firmer. The US-JP 10yr yield differential sits at +351bps, fresh multi week highs.
  • Regional equity sentiment is positive, with positive gains across most indices. AUD/JPY is around +0.30% higher, the pair last near 97.65.
  • Our Tokyo based policy team doesn't see the BoJ changing stance next week (see this link for more details).
  • The 1 week USD/JPY risk reversal sits at -1.255. This is above lows seen in 2023 ahead of other BoJ meetings, so FX markets aren't pricing in an aggressive BoJ surprise either.

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