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USD/JPY Extends Rally, Tests 200-DMA

JPY

USD/JPY advanced for the seventh day in a row Thursday, capping its longest streak of gains since 2016, and attacked the 200-DMA which had been intact since Jun 2020. Broad-based demand for the greenback helped fuel the rally, with U.S. equity benchmarks firming up & recent U.S. labour market data boding well for tomorrow's NFP report. The intraday range was constrained by option roll-offs, with $1.4bn of options expiring at Y105.00 & a further $1.0bn expiring at Y105.55-65.

  • Japan revised its travel restrictions, extending its ban on entries by foreigners through Mar 7, bringing it into accord with the duration of the state of emergency.
  • The rate showed above its 200-DMA (Y105.58) this morning and last trades at Y105.56, just above neutral levels. A clean break above that level would open up Nov 11 high of Y105.68, followed by the upper 3.0% Bollinger band at Y106.15. Bears look for a retreat under Feb 2 low of Y104.83, ahead of Jan 11 & recent breakout level at Y104.40.
  • Japanese household spending data comes out shortly.
  • Next week, focus moves to BoP current account balance & Eco Watchers Survey (Monday) as well as earnings data & flash machine tool orders (Tuesday).
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