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USD/JPY Firms But Stops Short Of Fresh Highs, Mar National CPI On Tap Today

JPY

USD/JPY got back close to 154.70 in Thursday US trade. A firmer US yield backdrop, post comments from the Fed's Williams aided the 3-6bps move up in US Cash Tsy yields. Yen lost 0.16% for Thursday's session, and USD/JPY tracks close to 154.60 in early Friday trade.

  • Late comments from the US session from FinMin Suzuki - that rate differentials are not only factor in FX levels now, along with BoJ’s Ueda - chance weak yen may affect trend inflation which could lead to a policy shift, helped nudge USD/JPY away from session highs.
  • We remain just short of 154.79, which marked recent highs, beyond that lies round figure resistance at 155.00. Yesterday's lows in the pair came in just under 154.00.
  • The next up in USD/JPY could be difficult to come by without another major shift in Fed policy pricing, as positioning looks stretched and diplomatic blockers to potential intervention appear to have peeled away in recent sessions (as per G7 related comments yesterday).
  • Locally, we have the March national CPI on tap today, with the market looks for 2.8% y/y headline, same as last month. The core ex fresh food, energy measure is projected at 3.0% y/y (from 3.2% in Feb).
  • In the option expiry space, we have the following for NY cut later: Y155.00($1.7bln).

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