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USD/JPY Range Tightest Since Dec'21

JPY
  • A considerably more muted session for USD/JPY, posting its tightest daily range (so far) since January 1st 2024, and before that: December 2021.
  • Markets remain on intervention watch, with the trade-weighted JPY spot index again touching a new series low thanks to firmer antipodean FX, rather than USD Index, today.
  • Realised vols across USDJPY remain subdued, despite pick-ups in intraday vol - evident in yesterday's ~65 pip blip lower that raised concerns of intervention - but didn't meet the Japanese authorities' usual pattern of behaviour.
  • One-week realised vol (4.8 points) sits at just over half the rolling average posted since the beginning of 2023 (8.8 points), feeding into contained hedging costs, despite spot's continued slide and decent pricing for a further 25bps of BoJ hikes over the course of this calendar year.
  • Technically, the bull cycle remains intact, however the trend is overbought. Sights are on the 155.00 handle next.
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