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USD/JPY Through Bull Trigger On BoJ Leadership Speculation, Labor Earnings Data Out Today

JPY

Yen was the third worst performer through Friday's session (after NZD & AUD), with all currencies faltering against the USD post the payrolls report. The yen lost 1.90% and has fallen another 1% in the first part of trade today. This puts the pair around the 132.50 level currently. We are through the Jan 18 high of 131.58, which was a bull trigger. The Jan 11 high comes in at 132.87, while the 50-day EMA is at 133.03.

  • Further weakness comes after a Nikkei report that BoJ Deputy Governor Amamiya has been approached to take over as Governor once Kuroda's terms ends. Amamiya was seen as the most likely candidate, per a Bloomberg survey.
  • Still, Amamiya is seen as less hawkish than former deputy governor Nakaso, who is also reportedly under consideration for the position.
  • This is likely to the be the main focus point for markets. 1 month USD/JPY vol is around 12.30% currently, down from recent highs close to 17%, but structurally much higher than 2021/early 2022 levels.
  • On the data front today, Dec labor cash earnings print. The headline y/y number is expected at 2.5%, from a revised 1.9% last month. Real earnings are forecast at -1.5% y/y (from -2.5% prior).
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