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USD/JPY Unwinds All Of Its Post BoJ Bounce Before Stabilizing

JPY

USD/JPY continued to pull back post the Asia close. The pair unwound all of its post BoJ bounce, falling just under 127.60 in NY trade, a peak to trough move of around 3% (131.58 was the post BoJ high). We recovered from here though, as broader USD sentiment improved amid equity market losses. We are back to 128.80/85 currently, around 0.55% weaker in yen terms for Wednesday's session.

  • Jan 16 lows at 127.23 remain intact, which is the bear trigger for the pair. While topside focus is likely to rest on yesterday's intra-day highs close to 131.60, with a move above this level likely needed to establish more bullish conditions for the pair.
  • Weaker US data outcomes (retail sales and PPI) drove a sharp pull back in US yields. The US-JP 10yr swap spread is actually down 8bps for Wednesday's session to +224bps, despite a sharp pull back in Japan yields post BoJ.
  • While the data outcomes weighed on equity trends and helped turn broader USD sentiment around, JPY outperformed against higher beta plays during this period.
  • On the data front today, Dec trade figures print, along with weekly investment flow data.
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