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USD Losses Trimmed, USDJPY Stops Short Of 2024 High With Japan CPI Eyed

FOREX
  • The USD has seen a day of two halves, slipping through European hours and into the early part of the US session, before a EGBs-led climb in Treasury yields helped support the USD index to limit the day’s losses to -0.1%.
  • AUD and NZD are clearly bottom of the G10 FX pack today, pulling back after last week’s gains, and especially so NZD as focus turns to the Feb 28 RBNZ decision.
  • JPY has also come under pressure amidst that yield backdrop, but USDJPY topped out at 150.84 as it met resistance at the 2024 high of 150.89. Our technical analyst has noted that the trend outlook for the pair remains bullish and the latest pause appears to be a bull flag formation. A break of the early '24 peak would expose the Nov '23 highs and increase the risk of intervention out of Tokyo. Recent moves have triggered increased vigilance and comments on the part of the Japanese authorities.
  • At the other end of the spectrum sits the EUR, owing to the larger sell-off in EGBs, and by extension SEK, the latter holding up well considering the reversal of earlier strength in equity futures.
  • Ahead, Japan CPI headlines the Asia Pac session whilst KC Fed’s Schmid (’25 voter) is still to come for potentially his first monetary policy relevant comments since being appointed in August. After that, US durable goods orders land before the Conference Board’s consumer survey including its closely watched labor differential after it increased strongly ahead of the January blowout payrolls report.
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