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USD Moderately Softer As US Yields Dip, EMFX Outperforms

FOREX
  • Firmer price action for equities and lower US yields weighed on the greenback on Tuesday, with the USD index around 0.2% lower as we approach the APAC crossover. Gains across G10 were broad based but modest, with outperformance seen in the emerging market FX basket.
  • Initial headlines from China boosted sentiment on Tuesday, with the country said to be considering raising its budget deficit for 2023 as the government prepares to unleash a new round of stimulus to help the economy meet the government’s annual growth target, according to people familiar with the matter. The news buoyed the likes of EUR and GBP which remain moderate outperformers, especially against the JPY.
  • For EURUSD, the pair looks set to resume its most recent appreciating trend on Tuesday, showing above the 20-day EMA in the process. As a result, the outlook is beginning to improve for the pair, however momentum measures and the medium-term trend direction remain lower for now.
  • USDJPY support at last Tuesday’s low of 147.43, remains intact. The recovery from this level last week is bullish and - for now - the uptrend remains intact. Clearance of 147.43 would be a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the topside, a clear break of the 150.00 handle would be required to reinforce bullish conditions.
  • The softer greenback and improved sentiment have underpinned a solid recovery for the likes of MXN and ZAR, rising 1.15% and 1.50% respectively.
  • Wednesday will focus on US PPI and the FOMC minutes, however, both are likely to play second fiddle to the week’s main event of US September CPI on Thursday.
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