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USD/NOK Nears Key Resistance on Sliding Inflation Expectations

NOK
  • NOK remains the poorest performer in G10, with USD/NOK narrowing in on the Sept'22 high of 11.0111 - a break above which puts the pair at the best levels since the 2020 pandemic.
  • Moves follow the Q2 expectations this morning that showed a marked step-down in inflation expectations for this year (4% from 6%) and over the 2-3y horizon (4.3% from 5.4%) - the retrace of inflation expectations provides further evidence that price pressures among households may have peaked - representing the first step down in expectations since 2019.
  • Norges Bank's Q1 MPR continues to see inflation pulling lower in the coming months - meaning today's pullback in expectations may not be outside of policymaker forecast. Focus remains on the Jun 22 rate decision and fresh set of projections, at which the bank are seen upping their rate path for the coming few months.

Figure 1: Norges Bank Q1 MPR Inflation Expectations

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