MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 14

MNI BRIEF: China Jan Yuan Loans, Financing Beat Expectations

CHINA JAN NEW LOANS CNY5.13 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY4.53 TRL

MNI BRIEF: China Machinery Expects Stable Trade In 2025

MNI BRIEF: China 2024 Real Estate Loan Recovered: PBOC

MNI: China To Ensure 5% GDP Amid Export Uncertainty: CASS's Yu

MNI: EUROZONE FLASH Q4 GDP +0.1% Q/Q, +0.9% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN JAN HICP -0.1% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -100 BCF TO 2,297 BCF FEB 07 WK

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

GERMANY: Kukies Considers Potential Non-Implementation Of 2024 Suppl' Budget

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FOREX: USD Off Earlier Highs, Yen Outperfroms CAD & MXN

FOREX
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US President Trump held an impromptu press conference in the oval office as he signed executive orders. Comments around 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, most likely to be enacted on Feb 1 (per Trump comments) drew a significant market reaction. 

  • The USD BBDXY recouped earlier losses from sub 1300 to highs of 1310.28. We sit a little lower now, last around 1307.3, still up 0.40%, versus end Monday levels in NY.
  • Some market relief around lack of tariff action from Trump on Day 1 of the administration has clearly given away to a more cautious market tone. In the cross asset space, US equity futures flipped from early gains to back in the red, although sit up from lows (last near flat). US yields are still holding lower, the 10yr last down 8bps to 4.55%. Earlier lows were just under 4.54%.
  • USD/CAD got to highs of 1.4516, fresh highs since 2020. We sit back around 1.4440 in latest dealings around 0.90% weaker. USD/MXN got to 20.7987, sub recent highs. We are back around 20.73 in latest dealings, off a little over 1.0%.
  • USD/CNH is higher, last near 7.2870, up around 0.35%. Trump didn't specify anything around tariffs on China, but made threats on BRICS countries more broadly (something he stated around the election time last year). Trump also stated he had been invited to China. This suggests potential for negotiations with China, but market sentiment is still likely to remain cautious. He added that the administration is not ready for a universal tariff yet.
  • USD/JPY got to highs of 156.23 but sits back at 155.50/55 now, little changed for the session. The lower US yield backdrop and less positive equity backdrop helping yen outperformance. AUD and NZD are holding weaker but up from lows. A$ last near 0.6230/35, NZD around 0.5640/45. 
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US President Trump held an impromptu press conference in the oval office as he signed executive orders. Comments around 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, most likely to be enacted on Feb 1 (per Trump comments) drew a significant market reaction. 

  • The USD BBDXY recouped earlier losses from sub 1300 to highs of 1310.28. We sit a little lower now, last around 1307.3, still up 0.40%, versus end Monday levels in NY.
  • Some market relief around lack of tariff action from Trump on Day 1 of the administration has clearly given away to a more cautious market tone. In the cross asset space, US equity futures flipped from early gains to back in the red, although sit up from lows (last near flat). US yields are still holding lower, the 10yr last down 8bps to 4.55%. Earlier lows were just under 4.54%.
  • USD/CAD got to highs of 1.4516, fresh highs since 2020. We sit back around 1.4440 in latest dealings around 0.90% weaker. USD/MXN got to 20.7987, sub recent highs. We are back around 20.73 in latest dealings, off a little over 1.0%.
  • USD/CNH is higher, last near 7.2870, up around 0.35%. Trump didn't specify anything around tariffs on China, but made threats on BRICS countries more broadly (something he stated around the election time last year). Trump also stated he had been invited to China. This suggests potential for negotiations with China, but market sentiment is still likely to remain cautious. He added that the administration is not ready for a universal tariff yet.
  • USD/JPY got to highs of 156.23 but sits back at 155.50/55 now, little changed for the session. The lower US yield backdrop and less positive equity backdrop helping yen outperformance. AUD and NZD are holding weaker but up from lows. A$ last near 0.6230/35, NZD around 0.5640/45.