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FOREX: USD on top amid welcome return of intraday vol
-With no data or central bank events to speak of, markets focused on the
medium-term themes Tuesday as traders geared up from the extended weekend. The
USD (and the JPY) was the main beneficiary, rallying against most others as
equities in the US crept higher on a stream of positive earnings reports. This
lifted the USD index to its highest mark since June 2017, clearing a series of
key resistance levels in the process and giving the index a clear run up toward
the 99.00 handle seen in H1 2017. The moves were most noticeable against the EUR
and GBP at the time, but weakness was also evident in NOK and AUD.
-A poor turnout from commodities ex-oil worked against many in EMFX, with the
ZAR underperforming from the off and hitting the worst levels against the USD
since early April. AUD also fell victim, with implied vols ticking higher in
tandem ahead of the Wednesday CPI report.
-Australian CPI, German IFO and the Bank of Canada rate decision are the
highlights Wednesday, with more US earnings due as the S&P500 comes within 10
points of all-time highs.