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USD/PHP Firms But Remains Within Recent Ranges, BSP Seen On Hold This Week

PHP

Spot USD/PHP has pushed back above 56.00 in the first part of dealing today, the pair last near 56.09. Note onshore markets were closed on Friday. The 1 month NDF is also nearby, last near 56.10. These moves keep us within recent ranges for the peso.

  • Recent lows in the 1 month NDF (55.80) coincided with the 50-day MA, which now is back to 55.83. All key EMAs are near by to current NDF and spot levels.
  • Broader macro drivers have been mixed, with the USD index just off recent highs, while the oil bounce late last week will be seen as a headwind. Local equities continue to strengthen though, up to fresh 12 month highs in recent dealings, while offshore investor flows were firm late last week.
  • The main macro focus this week will be Thursday's BSP decision. None of the economists surveyed by BBG look for a shift in the policy rate, which currently sits at 6.50%.
  • The tone from the BSP will be watched, although recent rhetoric has pushed back against the idea of a near term dovish shift.
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