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USD/PHP Maintaining Recent Ranges, BSP Still Likely To Follow The Fed

PHP

USD/PHP remains within well tracked ranges. The pair was last at 57.37, little changed for the session. We haven't been able to get above 57.50 in recent weeks, while on the downside dips sub 57.20 are being supported. More broadly, we are wedged between the 50 (58.21) and 100 (57.07) day simple MAs.

  • Finance Secretary Diokno stated the Philippines may hit the top end of this year's GDP target (6.5-7.5%). Recall for Q3 GDP we saw a decent upside beat (7.6% y/y versus 6.2% expected).
  • Local equity market sentiment remains positive, the PSEi up a further 0.50% today, with the 200-day MA (6623.14) the next technical resistance point (current index levels are 6437).
  • BSP Governor Medalla stated the central bank was more relaxed about current FX levels. We are comfortably below earlier YTD highs near 59.00.
  • The Governor stated the central bank is still likely to follow the Fed, to some degree, as a 50bp Fed hike means the Peso would weaken if the BSP did nothing.
  • The local data calendar is fairly quiet, with just budget balance data (due the 25th) due later this week.
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