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USD/PLN Narrowing in on Key Support and 2023 Low

PLN
  • Broad USD weakness working in favour of PLN so far Tuesday, with PLN outperforming vs. Both EUR, USD and regional peers. The local yield curve has shifted higher and steepened modestly, with the 10y yield higher by 5bps at typing.
  • Local focus remains on inflation, with the views of NBP members (most notably Wnorowski and Glapinski last week) that inflation will slow from the midpoint of this year clashing with public surveys: today's DGP write the public overwhelmingly have seen no evidence of any slowdown in price rises.
  • This Thursday's final CPI for March is unlikely to tip the balance, with the core release next week likely to be of more interest. Nonetheless, it's unlikely to tip the bank away from changing rates in the short-term, as markets watch for any change in communications first: last week Glapinski stated "Poland hasn't formally ended the tightening cycle".
  • 4.2632-46 remains key support going forward having held on three occasions so far this year. Weakness through here opens levels not seen since Jun'22 and the 4.2376 downside level.
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