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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RUSSIA
- Since last Friday, geopolitical risk sentiment has taken a sharp turn for the worse, coming off a low base in Russia after the US hinted at a possible invasion of Ukraine, and tensions on the Belarus/Poland border bubbled over into a proxy spat with the EU
- This has continued this week with more sabre-rattling in the Black Sea from NATO & the US and warnings of sanctions should Russia make any military moves on Ukraine
- From Russia's side, apart from obliterating a satellite and moving some military units to the border, the rhetoric has been relatively placid and fallen short of stoking tensions in the Black Sea with its own counter-operations. However, with the US focused on China, Russia has been choking EU gas supplies to leverage an expedited rollout of the NS2 pipeline – which has now come unstuck with a pause in progress from German regulators.
- Russian officials have downplayed the troop movements and intentions, and most experts see little value for Russia in launching an all-out assault on Ukraine at this juncture. We share this view, but for now it seems more sabre-rattling will be the order of the day until either side makes some concessions.
- USD/RUB 1m riskies have surged 1.80 points since Friday, moving towards Jan 2021 levels in a rather short amount of time, while spot $RUB has also risen +2.67%, and is currently hovering around the 73.50 mark.
- USD strength following firmer
retail sales and industrial production has also kept the broad EM universe on
the backfoot and put commodities under pressure – adding to RUB's woes.
USD/RUB 1m RRs
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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