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USD/RUB Bounces Off its 200dma; Markets Eye Potential Steps Towards In-Person Contacts

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.02% lower this morning, broadly in line with firmer oil markets and a softer BBDXY.
  • The cross rose +0.66% in yesterday’s session to close above 74.00 with price action failing to break below the 200dma.
  • In terms of today’s Biden-Putin meeting, both sides remain resolute in their current positions, making unlikely that either will step back on their demands at this stage and instead move talks towards a face-to-face in Jan 2022.
  • This scenario would represent a mildly positive development and should be RUB supportive.
  • The US is likely to call for Russia to pull back its troops from the border and reiterate economic sanctions threats, should Russia invade Ukraine, while Russia will call for NATO to end its eastward expansion – demands neither side will likely acquiesce to.
  • While threats of SWIFT sanctions have not moved the needle too much in RUB, further threats coming directly from the Biden Administration following today’s meeting could add weight to concerns.
  • On the oil front, markets will look to API inventory data for signs of demand/supply imbalances with Brent still trading below the $75/bbl handle.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.9915, Sup2: 73.5033, Sup3: 73.3150, Res1: 74.4485 Res2: 74.75558
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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