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USD/RUB Breaches 71.50, Geopolitical Tensions Build in the Background

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.05% lower this morning, tracking choppy BBDXY price action with flat oil markets adding little impetus thus far.
  • The cross rose +0.89% yesterday, breaking above the 71.50 mark to test the 61.8% fib retracement of the 01-26 Oct range.
  • Tensions with Ukraine appear to be heating up somewhat, with the US showing a greater degree of concern over Russian troop/artillery movements.
  • A variety of bombings and military activities in the Donbass in recent weeks have escalated tensions with Russia and Kiev exchanging slightly more pointed comments/threats in the press since Turkish drone bombing of DPR artillery.
  • This will need to be monitored going forward as the geopolitical risk premium in RUB is currently low after a period of relative calm. Oil markets will gauge API inventory data today after a week of builds soothed demand-side pressures.
  • Covid cases remain a concern, with analyst speculating about an extension of the local lockdowns with numbers remaining elevated and hospitals coming under strain.
  • On the international front, markets will begin to price in FOMC outcomes with a bias towards a hawkish surprise emerging surrounding the discussion of inflation and rates lift-off.
  • Intraday Sup1: 71.1058, Sup2: 70.8169, Res1: 71.6864, Res2: 72.0654
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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