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Consolidation Mode But Remains Bearish


Fails To Hold Onto Thursday’s High


'Big Tech' Bill Goes To Senate


Oil Up For Fifth Week On Supply Disruption, Geopolitics

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  • USD/RUB trades -0.48% lower this morning, brushing off oil weakness on the back of a mostly constructive start to US-Russia talks.
  • Oil markets snapped two days of gains after a notable uptick in API inventory data – pointing to the largest stockpile gain since Feb.
  • As expected, the Biden-Putin meeting resulted in a stalemate with promises for a face-to-face at the next G20 summit.
  • Both sides reiterated their red lines, but Putin seems to have gained the upper hand with Biden agreeing to discuss NATO’s eastward expansion with his allies, while giving away little in terms of pulling back troops.
  • Sanctions risks still remain in the background (predicated on low probability of Ukraine invasion) with little change in the current situation, but the mere existence of a dialogue should be sufficient so see a moderate cooling in geopolitical risk premia baked into RUB assets.
  • USD/RUB fell -0.42% yesterday, with the focus now back on the 200dma (73.5577), and a potential break below that would bring the 100dma into play going not the presumably hawkish CBR meeting next week.
  • Intraday Sup1: 73.5033, Sup2: 73.1560, Res1: 74.3325, Res2: 74.7558